Markets witnessed volatile swings on the monthly expiry day and ended marginally lower amid mixed cues. The surprise tariff announcement by the US President on India initially triggered a knee-jerk reaction; however, a gradual recovery in heavyweight stocks across sectors helped the index briefly turn positive. Selling pressure resurfaced in the final hours, once again putting bulls on the back foot. As a result, the Nifty future closed at 24,871.60, down 0.35%.

All major sectors, except FMCG, came under pressure, with pharma, metal, and energy emerging as the top losers. The broader indices also resumed their corrective phase, each losing over a percent.

As the new series begins, the market is likely to consolidate, but global developments and corporate earnings will continue to drive volatility. We maintain our cautious stance and recommend a stock-specific approach, given the mixed trends across sectors. Traders should also avoid averaging down on loss-making positions.

Nifty futures opened at 24800 points against the previous close of 24959 and opened at a low of 24723 points. Nifty Future closed with an average movement of 328 points and a decline of around 87 points and 24871 points…!!

On the NSE, the midcap 100 index will decline 0.93% and smallcap 100 index is closing decline 1.05%. Speaking of various sectoral indices, the NSE saw gains in only FMCG and Media stocks, while all other sectoral indices closed lower.

At the start of intra-day trading, August gold opened at Rs.98106, fell from a high of Rs.98495 points to a low of Rs.97900 with a rise of 373 points, a trend of around Rs.98440 and September Silver opened at Rs.1,12,108, fell from a high of Rs.1,12,108 points to a low of Rs.1,09,080 with a decline of 2654 points, a trend of around Rs.1,10,210.

Meanwhile, amid a bearish market, Nifty FMCG soared 791 points or 1.44 per cent, driven by buying interest- especially in Hindustan Unilever after it reported decent earnings in Q1. Other sectoral indices settled in negative territory with Nifty Auto falling 89 points, Nifty IT slipping 180 points, and Nifty Bank closing 188 points down.

The domestic market attempted a strong recovery after experiencing a sharp decline, but by the end of the day, it closed with marginal losses on a monthly expiry day. Investors gravitated toward domestically oriented, non-discretionary players, especially FMCG, which offered attractive valuations, demand outlook and relative insulation from tariff risks.

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Nifty future ended marginally higher for the second straight session, closing at 24,869 (+0.12%), led by strength in index heavyweights such as L&T and Sun Pharma, along with value buying in select blue-chip names. However, broader market sentiment remained cautious amid uncertainty over the India-U.S. trade agreement and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision. The IMF raised India’s GDP growth forecast to 6.4% for both FY26 and FY27, citing easing global trade tensions.

Meanwhile, reports indicate that the India-U.S. trade deal remains unresolved, with potential tariff rates in the 20–25% range under consideration. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) continued to support the market, partially offsetting sustained foreign investor outflows. Globally, markets are expected to remain in a wait-and-watch mode ahead of key U.S. macro data — including the Fed rate decision, Nonfarm employment report, Q2 GDP estimates — and China’s Manufacturing PMI.

On the earnings front, key results expected on Thursday include Vedanta, Swiggy, TVS Motors, and Thermax. Markets are expected to remain in consolidation mode, with stock-specific action likely as the earnings season progresses. Additionally, the Fed’s interest rate decision will further steer market direction.

Nifty futures opened at 24845 points against the previous close of 24838 and opened at a low of 24786 points. Nifty Future closed with an average movement of 124 points and a rise of around 30 points and 24869 points…!!

On the NSE, the midcap 100 index will decline 0.07% and smallcap 100 index is closing decline 0.52%. Speaking of various sectoral indices, the NSE saw gains in only IT, FMCG, Consumer Durables and Pharma stocks, while all other sectoral indices closed lower.

At the start of intra-day trading, August gold opened at Rs.98500, fell from a high of Rs.98865 points to a low of Rs.98250 with a rise of 569 points, a trend of around Rs.98830 and September Silver opened at Rs.1,13,664, fell from a high of Rs.1,14,023 points to a low of Rs.1,12,925 with a decline of 313 points, a trend of around Rs.1,13,440.

Meanwhile, The FIIs as per Wednesday’s data were net sellers in both equity and debt segments, according to data released by the NSDL. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 13015.83 crore against gross selling of Rs 16708.18 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 3692.35 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1527.94 crore with gross sales of Rs 2174.43 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 646.49 crore in debt. Of the total debt, FIIs stood as net sellers in Debt-General Limit segment at Rs 39.81 crore, they stood at net sellers in Debt-VRR segment at Rs 1102.15 crore, while net buyers in Debt-FAR segment at Rs 495.47 crore.

In the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 27.17 crore against gross selling of Rs 30.31 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 3.14 crore in hybrid segment.

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Indian equities rebounded after a three-day losing streak, with Nifty future climbing 128 points to close at 24,838 (+0.52%). The recovery was broad-based, led by value buying at lower levels. Notably, Nifty Realty (+2.6%) bounced back after steep losses in the last few sessions. Pharma stocks extended gains on follow-up buying, while select auto exporters remained in focus amid optimism around the recently announced US-EU trade deal.

There is significant action in the primary market with five mainboard IPOs including the Rs4000cr NSDL IPO opening for subscription this week. Going ahead, investor focus would shift towards global macros with US Q2 GDP and the Fed interest rate decision scheduled to be announced tomorrow.

On the earnings front, key results on Wednesday include Tata Steel, Interglobe aviation, Hyundai Motor, PNB, Power Grid amongst others. Overall, we expect the markets to witness selective buying, driven by quarterly results; while broader sentiment would hinge on macroeconomic data and progress in the India-US trade deal.

Nifty futures opened at 24636 points against the previous close of 24710 and opened at a low of 24630 points. Nifty Future closed with an average movement of 229 points and a rise of around 128 points and 25838 points…!!

On the NSE, the midcap 100 index will rise 0.81% and smallcap 100 index is closing rise 1.03%. Speaking of various sectoral indices, Realty, Pharma, Healthcare, Oil & gas and Metal stocks saw heavy gains on the NSE, while all other sectoral indices also closed higher.

At the start of intra-day trading, August gold opened at Rs.97627, fell from a high of Rs.98070 points to a low of Rs.97580 with a rise of 205 points, a trend of around Rs.97750 and September Silver opened at Rs.1,13,268, fell from a high of Rs.1,13,630 points to a low of Rs.1,12,700 with a rise of 96 points, a trend of around Rs.1,13,149.

Meanwhile, The FIIs as per Tuesday’s data were net sellers in both equity and debt segments, according to data released by the NSDL. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 10191.17 crore against gross selling of Rs 16154.77 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 5963.60 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 693.20 crore with gross sales of Rs 1496.86 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 803.66 crore in debt. Of the total debt, FIIs stood as net sellers in Debt-General Limit segment at Rs 574.57 crore, they stood at net sellers in Debt-VRR segment at Rs 26.89 crore, while net sellers in Debt-FAR segment at Rs 202.2 crore.

In the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 11.17 crore against gross selling of Rs 10.63 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 0.54 crore in hybrid segment.

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The former president of India’s Indian Drug Manufacturers Association says that earlier there was no duty on drugs exported to Britain. Therefore, not on drug exports, but on API-bulk drug imports will become cheaper. Overall, under its impact, the exports of Gujarat’s pharma industry are likely to increase. India’s generic, biosimilar drugs will now be able to enter the UK market without any duty. As a result of the new agreement, the export of drugs from India will increase by approximately 12 to 15 percent. 33 percent of India’s total drug production is produced in Gujarat. Similarly, 28 percent of India’s total drug exports to Britain are exported from Gujarat. Now these exporters will face minimal obstacles in exporting drugs.        

The share of the apparel segment is likely to decline further. It could fall to 32% by FY2030. The reason for the decline in leasing share of apparel brands is hypermarkets and these brands are facing tough competition from e-commerce. Their difficulties have increased due to the increasing trend of fast commerce. Sports and jewellery sectors have become increasingly popular in malls in the last few years. The share of jewellery sector was only 2% in FY19, which increased to 5% in FY25 and is expected to increase to 13% in FY30.

The surge is due to a significant operational change: On March 24, the NSE’s International Securities Identification Number – a global code – streamlined the share transfer process, reducing transaction times from months to just a few days. Market participants confirmed that shares can now be transferred freely. There is good volume of trading both buyers – sellers. Due to the increase in demand, the price of unlisted shares on the NSE has increased to Rs 2,225 per share, valuing the exchange at around Rs 5.5 lakh crore. This is much higher than at the beginning of the current financial year.

Economists said that this growth reflects the growing confidence of retail in the exchange, which is an opportunity for them to create wealth. We are seeing some long-term wealthy investors (HNIs) reducing their stakes. Retail ownership has increased. But the share of individual public shareholders with share capital of more than Rs. 2 lakh has slightly decreased to 9.52 percent (9.64 percent).

On the other hand, inflationary pressures are continuing to rise and raw material costs and production rates have increased in July. Business confidence has also reached its lowest level since March 2023, while employment growth has softened to a fifteen-month low. The initial PMI for the manufacturing sector, which was 58.40 in June, rose to 59.20 in July, which is a 75-year high. On the other hand, the PMI for the services sector, which was 60.40 in June, fell to 59.80 in July.

Sensex closed at 80,891.02, down 572.07 points or 0.70 per cent. The 30-share index began the session in the negative territory at 81,299.97 against the last day’s closing of 81,463.09. The index dragged down further to touch an intraday low at 80,776.44 amid selling in heavyweights, especially in the IT sector.

Kotak Bank, Bajaj Finance, Bharati Airtel, Titan, TCS, HCL Tech, SBI, Tata Steel, Eternal, Axis Bank, and Mahindra and Mahindra were top losers among the Sensex basket. Hindustan Unilever, Asian Paints, and ICICI Bank ended the session in green. Broader indices also experienced the heat of selling pressure.

Sectoral indices followed suit as well. Bank Nifty future fell 406 Points, Nifty Fin Service closed 192 points down, Nifty IT dropped 253 points, and Nifty Auto ended the session 88 points down. Rupee traded weak by 0.10 per cent at 86.65 as weakness in capital markets weighed on sentiment.

Nifty futures opened at 24799 points against the previous close of 24850 and opened at a low of 24667 points. Nifty Future closed with an average movement of 257 points and a decline of around 140 points and 24710 points…!!

On the NSE, the midcap 100 index will decline 0.84% and smallcap 100 index is closing decline 1.26%. Speaking of various sectoral indices, the NSE saw gains in only Pharma, FMCG and Healthcare stocks, while all other sectoral indices closed lower.

At the start of intra-day trading, August gold opened at Rs.97852, fell from a high of Rs.98120 points to a low of Rs.97839 with a rise of 131 points, a trend of around Rs.97950 and September Silver opened at Rs.1,13,165, fell from a high of Rs.1,13,417 points to a low of Rs.1,12,857 with a decline of 129 points, a trend of around Rs.1,12,923.

Meanwhile, the upcoming monetary policy decisions from the Fed and Bank of Japan, along with the trajectory of domestic quarterly earnings, are expected to play a pivotal role in shaping market direction in the near term. The week ahead is expected to remain volatile with key global triggers including the 1st August trade deal deadline with the U.S., along with major U.S. data releases.

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Nifty future ended lower for the second consecutive day, declining 245 points to close below 25k mark at 24,850 (-0.98%). Financial stocks, particularly Bajaj Finance, led the sell-off due to concerns over asset quality. Global uncertainties, lack of progress in India-US trade negotiations, and continuous selling by foreign investors further contributed to the market’s negative performance. Pharma and Healthcare indices showed resilience, closing higher by 0.6-0.7% each, amid a broad based sectoral sell-off.

In a positive development, the India-UK free trade agreement (FTA) was signed in the presence of PM Narendra Modi and UK PM Keir Starmer. The trade deal which was agreed upon in May this year, aims to enhance bilateral trade to $120 billion by 2030, effectively doubling the current trade volume between both nations.

On the macro front, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, but flagged downside risks to growth in the Eurozone. Overall, we expect market to remain in consolidation mode amid continued uncertainty around India-US trade deal, a mixed Q1FY26 earnings season so far and intensifying FII outflows. Key results over the weekend include Kotak Mahindra bank, Macrotech Developers, CDSL amongst others.

Nifty futures opened at 25011 points against the previous close of 25095 and opened at a low of 24831 points. Nifty Future closed with an average movement of 193 points and a decline of around 245 points and 24850 points…!!

On the NSE, the midcap 100 index will decline 1.61% and smallcap 100 index is closing decline 2.10%. Speaking of various sectoral indices, the NSE saw gains in only Healthcare and Pharma stocks, while all other sectoral indices closed lower.

At the start of intra-day trading, August gold opened at Rs.98582, fell from a high of Rs.98627 points to a low of Rs.97936 with a decline of 766 points, a trend of around Rs.97960 and September Silver opened at Rs.1,15,466, fell from a high of Rs.1,15,700 points to a low of Rs.1,14,420 with a decline of 418 points, a trend of around Rs.1,14,715.

Meanwhile, The FIIs as per Friday’s data were net sellers in both equity and debt segments, according to data released by the NSDL. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 14387.03 crore against gross selling of Rs 16382.53 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 1995.50 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1168.22 crore with gross sales of Rs 2496.95 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 1328.73 crore in debt. Of the total debt, FIIs stood as net sellers in Debt-General Limit segment at Rs 476.26 crore, they stood at net buyers in Debt-VRR segment at Rs 12.02 crore, while net sellers in Debt-FAR segment at Rs 864.49 crore.

In the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 28.96 crore against gross selling of Rs 15.93 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 13.03 crore in hybrid segment.

The securities quoted are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read and agree Disclaimer and related all the documents carefully before investing, mentioned on www.nikhilbhatt.in

Nifty future ended with a loss of 157 points at 25,095 (-0.62%) as earnings volatility weighed on investor sentiments; even as the India-UK free trade agreement to be signed on Thursday, is expected to provide a significant boost to foreign trade.

Moreover, intensifying FII selling with outflows of over Rs28,000cr in July so far, has further added to investor concerns. IT stocks witnessed sharp decline with Nifty IT down over 2%, after mid-cap players Coforge and Persistent reported weaker than expected quarterly results.

Additionally, lingering uncertainty around the India-US trade deal further weighed on the sector. In contrast, Nifty PSU bank index gained 1.2% on the back of strong Q1 results from Canara Bank and Indian Bank.

Overall, we expect Indian markets to remain range-bound, with stock/sector specific movements driven by Q1 earnings outcome. Meanwhile, global developments including formalisation of the UK FTA and updates on the India-US trade deal, will be closely tracked by market participants.

Nifty futures opened at 25290 points against the previous close of 25252 and opened at a low of 25049 points. Nifty Future closed with an average movement of 241 points and a decline of around 157 points and 25095 points…!!

On the NSE, the midcap 100 index will decline 0.58% and smallcap 100 index is closing decline 1.09%. Speaking of various sectoral indices PSU Bank, Healthcare, Healthcare Index, Pharma, Metal and Auto stocks saw gain on the NSE, while all other sectoral indices closed lower.

At the start of intra-day trading, August gold opened at Rs.99118, fell from a high of Rs.99118 points to a low of Rs.98283 with a decline of 989 points, a trend of around Rs.98428 and September Silver opened at Rs.1,14,675, fell from a high of Rs.1,15,450 points to a low of Rs.1,14,350 with a decline of 828 points, a trend of around Rs.1,14,808.

Meanwhile, The FIIs as per Thursday’s data were net sellers in both equity and debt segments, according to data released by the NSDL. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 15482.42 crore against gross selling of Rs 18781.70 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 3299.28 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 540.16 crore with gross sales of Rs 1114.98 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 574.82 crore in debt. Of the total debt, FIIs stood as net sellers in Debt-General Limit segment at Rs 360.43 crore, they stood at net buyers in Debt-VRR segment at Rs 29.98 crore, while net sellers in Debt-FAR segment at Rs 244.37 crore.

In the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 30.27 crore against gross selling of Rs 15.29 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 14.98 crore in hybrid segment.

The securities quoted are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read and agree Disclaimer and related all the documents carefully before investing, mentioned on www.nikhilbhatt.in